Search found 409 matches

by iwealth
Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Minimum time frame for holding PP
Replies: 59
Views: 18864

Re: Minimum time frame for holding PP

How's everyone enjoying their false protection? Gold and Cash were both winners today. How is that false protection? Honestly, Budd, I don't know whether to pity you or laugh at you. You're about as miserable as it gets. That sums it up succinctly, nice job! I don’t have $6.00 USD in 3 ETF’s so I d...
by iwealth
Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2627
Views: 530685

Re: The GOLD scream room

Budd, you've known for years that the PP does not do what you want it to do. You want it to zig while stocks zag on an intraday basis. It does not do that. And it's creating a massive drag on your returns during one of the greatest and longest bull markets in history. Why would you allocate any of t...
by iwealth
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
Replies: 115
Views: 24042

Re: Is the PP going to hold up?

I see; so when there’s fear the masses run to BTC. That makes sense now. Can’t tell if you are being serious because nobody said anything close to that. Bitcoin dropped 25% between 2/5 and 2/6 during the most volatile market day in a decade. The masses ran out of bitcoin far faster than any other a...
by iwealth
Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
Replies: 115
Views: 24042

Re: Is the PP going to hold up?

Let me be clear, I am not advocating buying BTC but merely pointing out on a day where the DOW fell 1000+ points BTC rose 10% while Gold only 0.24% That doesn't seem unusual to anyone on this forum? Think about that for a moment. Techno, not sure what you are talking about but you missed the point ...
by iwealth
Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 84
Views: 51396

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Sorry this happened to you kbg. This was actually a fascinating case study. Here's what I took away from it: I'm going to use the term "M1/M2" to represent the basket of VIX futures XIV inversely tracks. Intraday XIV only has a hypothetical NAV. CS isn't wheeling and dealing M1/M2 all day long. They...
by iwealth
Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 483
Views: 152217

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Good to see iwealth writing again! I think I last saw you write about leaving gold saying you “get stocks”, i.e. understand them and thus presumably were about to put more in them. I’m a bit envious! I’m sticking with the pp, but I would have been fine staying in nearly all stocks in 2010 instead. ...
by iwealth
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 483
Views: 152217

Re: The Bond Dream Room

The technicals don't look good for TLT, but who knows? I'm definitely going to be buying some soon if this continues. I struggle to find a good investment thesis for bonds right now. Wages are rising, inflation next? The economy is humming. Earnings are excellent. Tax reform done. Recession isn't o...
by iwealth
Mon Dec 05, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 448
Views: 97343

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

buddtholomew wrote:Thanks Tyler.
I am trying to identify an asset that correlates well with a rising dollar and so far only UUP ETF appears to meet the requirement.
I have no way of testing this, but I bet you'd be better off shorting a basket of international currencies. Easily done through a brokerage like IB.
by iwealth
Fri Sep 23, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2627
Views: 530685

Re: The GOLD scream room

It was just a rant, btw. 70/30 to 30/70 was just an example. A 60/40 to all cash switch looks great in tests as well. Heck, maybe add 10% gold and do 60/30/10 when bullish switch to 90 cash/10 gold when bearish. The exact allocation isn't important. The goal would be to mitigate risk (loss) during b...
by iwealth
Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2627
Views: 530685

Re: The GOLD scream room

More and more lately I've been considering abandoning the idea of risk parity portfolios like the PP and doing something like a 70/30 switch into a 30/70 when indicated by basic mechanical timing signals. I don't believe one can "time the market" from a day-trading perspective, but backtests show it...
by iwealth
Wed Sep 21, 2016 3:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Replies: 28
Views: 7488

Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz

27, and I also have no idea how I'd have answered some of those questions under different financial circumstances.

17, Budd, sheesh ;)
by iwealth
Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 174487

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Kbg wrote:and tax treatment is vastly superior in a taxable account
This wouldn't necessarily be true if you only rebalance yearly which I believe you've advocated if running a VP with the 3x ETFs...right?