Search found 971 matches

by melveyr
Mon Feb 15, 2016 4:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41553

Re: Question for Melveyr

I am 24 with no retirement date in mind. But I still save pretty aggressively (max out 401k, Roth, HSA, just starting to do taxable). If my health permitted and I could see myself working late into my life but using the portfolio's supplemental income to "go baller". I am literally just doing a vani...
by melveyr
Mon Feb 15, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41553

Re: Question for Melveyr

Well, as I said before I am certainly not ringing the alarm bell on the portfolio. The performance since starting the blog has been decent considering the risk level. The sharpe ratio has beaten the vanguard 60/40 Balanced fund (VBINX). I just want to go with a more traditional approach with my asse...
by melveyr
Mon Feb 15, 2016 12:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41553

Re: Question for Melveyr

One more question: So it seems that you have shifted from gold to TIPs for an inflation hedge. Do you think that is better than just a smaller allocation to gold? If so, can you elaborate? If I wanted to inflation proof a retirement plan that was about to enter the withdrawal phase the first step w...
by melveyr
Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41553

Re: Question for Melveyr

I don't recall HB commenting on the relationship between money supply and gold. Gold responds to unexpected inflation is the theory not excess bank reserves stored at the FED. The $ didn't reach those who could spend it and raise inflation. Not sure the model is broken, perhaps misused but not brok...
by melveyr
Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41553

Re: Question for Melveyr

Might as well ask here. Elsewhere you said, "I found that the main advocates for gold were using old models that have already been proven wrong." Can you elaborate a bit more? Not so much here on this forum but many gold holders were betting on a big inflation coming because of charts like this: ht...
by melveyr
Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:07 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41553

Re: Question for Melveyr

Hey melveyr, You have written so eloquently (and concisely) in support of the PP on your site and I am curious what has caused you to change your mind about Harry Browne's ideas. Has something fundamentally shifted in the world, or were those just the writings of a younger version of your current s...
by melveyr
Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41553

Re: Question for Melveyr

The only other point I would add to that is that the state taxation of CDs is mitigated by placing them in a traditional IRA. Your taxable account should really be equity focused as long as you are managing all of your assets as one portfolio.
by melveyr
Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41553

Re: Question for Melveyr

Oh and regarding tax efficiency because you mentioned split between taxable/tax advantaged... Try to view your entire pool of assets as one portfolio but understand that some accounts are more suited to specific assets. Roth: Stocks 401k: Bond funds Traditional IRA: CDs (because 401ks don't offer th...
by melveyr
Sun Feb 14, 2016 6:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41553

Re: Question for Melveyr

My thoughts are quite mainstream and not terribly exciting! But I will try to explain it in a different way to hopefully make it interesting. I do think that time horizon matters. I think that long term liabilities should be financed with longer term assets and shorter term liabilities should financ...
by melveyr
Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Manhattan Meet-up: 2 pm May 9 @ New Leaf Cafe
Replies: 86
Views: 39905

Re: Manhattan Meet-Up for PP Folks?

Saturday uptown works!
by melveyr
Fri Apr 24, 2015 11:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Manhattan Meet-up: 2 pm May 9 @ New Leaf Cafe
Replies: 86
Views: 39905

Re: Manhattan Meet-Up for PP Folks?

I live in LES but can meet anywhere on Manhattan  ;D
by melveyr
Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PPs for Different Risk Tolerances
Replies: 8
Views: 4523

Re: PPs for Different Risk Tolerances

MG, I'm not sure I understand the application of duration outside of bonds. Standard deviation has its flaws (and is a moving target) but I think it's the best we have. D1984, I am not a fan of the x3 (or x2) products. They are designed to be trading vehicles and the products' own prospectuses warn ...
by melveyr
Wed Nov 26, 2014 6:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PPs for Different Risk Tolerances
Replies: 8
Views: 4523

PPs for Different Risk Tolerances

Work has finally slowed down so I had some time to do some thinking and number crunching. I made a post here you guys might find interesting: http://www.stableinvesting.com/2014/11/november-26-2014-bond-duration-as.html?m=1 I think that the PPs core drivers can be exploited at varying levels of risk...
by melveyr
Wed Jan 22, 2014 9:20 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Role of Gold in a Portfolio
Replies: 2
Views: 3455

Re: Role of Gold in a Portfolio

The economic framework of that quadrant is exactly how the PP was designed. Bridgewater (the largest hedge fund group in the world) produced that specific chart, and they follow the same underlying philosophy as the PP for their All Weather fund. Harry Browne's description of 4 environments is somew...
by melveyr
Tue Nov 12, 2013 10:49 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: I'm "Almost" Embarrassed to Ask This
Replies: 15
Views: 9738

Re: I'm "Almost" Embarrassed to Ask This

The vanguard target retirement income fund is great. I love that they added hedged international bonds. You own a little bit of everything with that fund and at an extremely reasonable expense ratio. The only way to get burned with that fund is through a bad inflation or abandoning ship to chase so...
by melveyr
Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:31 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: I'm "Almost" Embarrassed to Ask This
Replies: 15
Views: 9738

Re: I'm "Almost" Embarrassed to Ask This

The vanguard target retirement income fund is great. I love that they added hedged international bonds. You own a little bit of everything with that fund and at an extremely reasonable expense ratio. The only way to get burned with that fund is through a bad inflation or abandoning ship to chase som...
by melveyr
Sun Oct 06, 2013 10:39 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Government shutdown effect on LT bonds
Replies: 21
Views: 11692

Re: Government shutdown effect on LT bonds

Treasuries rising after their downgrade is actually an extremely simple and logical response. Smart money knows that Treasuries are risk free in nominal terms and prices them primarily off of inflation and growth expectations. When Treasuries got downgraded it had no impact on their credit risk (bec...
by melveyr
Sat Sep 07, 2013 6:43 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Should we use Narrow Money or Broad Money when forecasting inflation?
Replies: 7
Views: 3353

Re: Should we use Narrow Money or Broad Money when determining Inflation?

Why not just use the % change in a price index to determine inflation? By definition inflation is a broad change in prices.
by melveyr
Thu Aug 22, 2013 7:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Rick Ferri Dissing HBPP
Replies: 25
Views: 14760

Re: Rick Ferri Dissing HBPP

"Never try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes time and annoys the pig"

I feel like I should tattoo this inside of my eyelids.
by melveyr
Wed Jul 24, 2013 6:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: June 1 CFA exams..
Replies: 9
Views: 5485

Re: June 1 CFA exams..

Yeah things are looking up :) Thanks guys.
by melveyr
Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:09 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: June 1 CFA exams..
Replies: 9
Views: 5485

Re: June 1 CFA exams..

Just level one.
by melveyr
Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: June 1 CFA exams..
Replies: 9
Views: 5485

Re: June 1 CFA exams..

Like a coward I didn't respond to this thread until I knew if I passed. But yes!
by melveyr
Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:57 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: That "other" investment forum is really retarded
Replies: 57
Views: 23630

Re: That "other" investment forum is really retarded

Sometimes I don't like reading the political views that are expressed here, and sometimes the Boglehead's moderating stifles interesting discussions.

I like having both options.
by melveyr
Wed Jul 03, 2013 5:06 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Life > Investment Performance
Replies: 18
Views: 10208

Life > Investment Performance

I am going through a rough part of my life, and the PP is the last thing on my mind. If you find yourself pre-occupied with the PP's recent lackluster performance, do yourself a favor and focus on bigger and better things. Life may be passing you by.

That is all.