Search found 3436 matches

by Desert
Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:27 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 520
Views: 27446

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

U.S. President Joe Biden and his G7 counterparts will agree on an import ban on new gold from Russia as they broaden sanctions against Moscow for its war against Ukraine, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Saturday. The United States has rallied the world in imposing swift and signif...
by Desert
Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:52 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles
Replies: 11
Views: 334

Re: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles

I suspect that the mathematically optimal approach to retirement savings (once you've hit a minimum threshold) is most likely the "Total Returns" strategy in the market - if you can stomach the joyride. I agree. And SS will provide a floor of sorts for most of us, so the combination of SS + Total r...
by Desert
Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:50 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles
Replies: 11
Views: 334

Re: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Jun 24, 2022 2:58 am
Pfau is principal and director of McLean asset mgmt …,he has a big vested interest in selling annuity products
The first part of that statement is correct, but it's not worth arguing about the second part.

To everyone else but mathjak, I would recommend taking a look at Pfau's work.
by Desert
Thu Jun 23, 2022 4:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles
Replies: 11
Views: 334

Re: Wade Pfau, Retirement Planning Guidebook, retirement styles

Always keep in mind pfau is an annuity salesman first and a researcher second . He is big on annuities in all his studies I may be interpreting your claim in bold too literally, but I'm pretty sure Pfau does not sell annuities. He does include annuities in his research and frequently in his recomme...
by Desert
Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:57 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1174
Views: 348045

Re: YouTube Junkie

+1 more. Thanks Hal. Question: I noticed the props appeared to be very slowly rotating in most of the video (except for the initial rev up after starting the engines). Is this due to shutter speed of the camera doing the filming being almost in sync with the rotation of the propellers while the B-2...
by Desert
Thu Jun 23, 2022 10:34 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1174
Views: 348045

Re: YouTube Junkie

+1, that was great Hal. I liked the P51 fighter escort also.
by Desert
Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8097

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

Pretty interesting series of posts in this thread today. ahhrunforthehills, I find your writing style to be pretty entertaining (in a good way, not a bad way). I think a wiki could make sense, though we're a pretty headstrong group here, so it might be tough to arrive at a consensus on many topics. ...
by Desert
Mon Jun 20, 2022 2:01 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5593

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Also, I'm not anti-gun. I own a few myself, and have spent more hours practicing with them than most gun owners. But it's pretty clear that the country is flooded with guns. They're mostly all semi auto these days, which means you can get a lot of rounds off in a hurry. The shooters may not hit what...
by Desert
Mon Jun 20, 2022 1:46 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5593

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

I couldn't access the Epoch Times link without providing my email and $, so I didn't read the article. Every wealthy country has mental health issues, antidepressants, violent video games, etc. No other wealthy democracy has our shooting death rate. Also, no other wealthy democracy is as religious a...
by Desert
Fri Jun 17, 2022 2:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10719

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

That's a helpful description, PS.

And if/when blockchain technology does become useful and cash-generating, it seems that "investing" in a random crypto is not the optimum way to participate in that future.
by Desert
Fri Jun 17, 2022 2:41 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1082117

Re: The GOLD scream room

Yeah, that gold story was too bad to be true!
by Desert
Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10719

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

A Keynesian and a Monetarist walk into a bar.... Yep. In times like these, I refer to the source of all economic truth, Investopedia: Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time. A quantitative estimate of the rate at which the decline in purchasing power occurs can b...
by Desert
Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:36 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 520
Views: 27446

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 7:44 am
Putin is willing to throw endless Russian lives at this, not to mention all the Ukrainian ones.
All these lives uprooted or snuffed out so he can slightly expand the empire.
He is indeed a monster.
by Desert
Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:34 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1082117

Re: The GOLD scream room

Uganda says exploration results show it has 31 million tonnes of gold ore https://www.mining.com/web/uganda-says-exploration-results-show-it-has-31-million-tonnes-of-gold-ore/ That's a lot of gold ore. In the article they claim: Muyita said an estimated 320,158 tonnes of refined gold could be extra...
by Desert
Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:07 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1174
Views: 348045

Re: YouTube Junkie

Oh no, Mr. Bookman, the Seinfeld library cop has died. I really liked this character:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNlEZERpQqQ
by Desert
Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 36
Views: 1152

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

Basic question...what exactly is "Cape" and how do I calculate it? Thanks! CAPE = Cyclically-adjusted price to earnings ratio. It's essentially a PE ratio, using a ten-year average of earnings. You can look it up here: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Some use 1/CAPE to estimate future stock retur...
by Desert
Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:14 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.
Replies: 19
Views: 549

Re: 4% withdrawals against a 50/50 portfolio.

I have been digging into the Bogleheads VPW method, and I like what I'm seeing so far. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=120430 It seems that it should do a reasonable job of reacting to market downturns without saving all the big payouts until we're 90 years old and can't enjoy it. I...
by Desert
Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:06 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10719

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

I was never tempted by crypto. I've made plenty of huge mistakes in life, but somehow wasn't drawn into this particular one.
by Desert
Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 36
Views: 1152

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

Xan wrote:
Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:06 am
The whole system of plea bargaining is a civil rights nightmare that nobody is talking about.
I agree. I've learned more about this only in recent years. Pleading guilty to a crime one didn't commit is apparently not uncommon.
by Desert
Mon Jun 13, 2022 5:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 36
Views: 1152

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

The definition of "financially independent" is what is setting your goal post. This definition is different for everyone. Do you have a formula in mind? Personally, I calculate it as follows: (Annual Spending x Cape) x 1.2 = Entry-Level Financially Independent Your calculation makes sense to me, bu...
by Desert
Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 36
Views: 1152

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

So he suggests a milder glide path for the red zone As pre-retirement I was genuinely interested on this, however if I can recall from this article (which you shared in the past if I am not mistaken) the glide path was in essence - move some of the stock allocation to bonds when you are in the red ...
by Desert
Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:59 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My crypto journey
Replies: 2
Views: 149

Re: My crypto journey

This is my all-time favorite crypto post, thanks ochotona.

And I really like your journey step 3, that's a great idea.
by Desert
Sat Jun 11, 2022 8:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much can you not afford to lose?
Replies: 36
Views: 1152

Re: How much can you not afford to lose?

This was a great exercise. I did it and arrived at a 60/40 PP/VP split ( for context, I'm 38 and my wife is pregnant w/ our second, god help us ). My wife was slightly more conservative, so we landed at 65/35. This was way more conservative than I would have landed had I not done the exercise. ;D C...
by Desert
Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:48 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5593

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

Kbg wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:17 pm
Next to 9/11 I've never been more outraged.
+1
by Desert
Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:35 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3543
Views: 1082117

Re: The GOLD scream room

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jun 10, 2022 2:33 pm
Nobody expects the snaggish acquisition

(Ok that was a stretch, but I did my best).
:D