Search found 3399 matches

by Desert
Thu May 19, 2022 9:20 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3503
Views: 1051357

Re: The GOLD scream room

Same here, Mike. I look at Gold as a combination of insurance + largely uncorrelated portfolio damper. A 10-20 percent slice of gold hasn't helped nor hurt returns significantly, so it's the best kind of insurance that comes at low/no cost. By the way, I wanted to give a bit of praise to dualstow fo...
by Desert
Thu May 19, 2022 9:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?
Replies: 17
Views: 453

Re: What kind of inflation are we experiencing?

Not talked about as much...but scarcity of labor is a significant factor I think as well. It has been a really long time since business has had to "pay up" for workers and the fact that unions are getting any traction at all suggests a tight labor market. P.S. It's good to have PS back and posting ...
by Desert
Sat May 14, 2022 7:51 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 36
Views: 2763

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

I Shrugged wrote:
Fri May 13, 2022 10:00 pm
I have a satisfactory amount of grumpiness.
;D
by Desert
Fri May 13, 2022 4:36 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3503
Views: 1051357

Re: The GOLD scream room

But in all seriousness, it looks like Gold is mostly tracking inversely to a strong dollar. The "market" has decided that inflation is headed down to ~3%. Not that Gold is strongly correlated with inflation anyway. In my investment view, gold has performed great twice in my lifetime: 1. When gold w...
by Desert
Fri May 13, 2022 9:46 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 36
Views: 2763

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

ppnewbie wrote:
Thu May 12, 2022 5:58 pm

My bad on this one. I got it wrong.
Thanks ppnewbie, and I'll work on being less of an old grumpy bastard. :)
by Desert
Thu May 12, 2022 3:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 560

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

Jason, there's no perfect answer since the future is unknowable, but I'd be tempted to do the following in your shoes: 1. Don't do a full rebalance at this moment. You weren't holding a true 4x25 HBPP at the beginning of the decline, so I wouldn't force yourself to take on the mental pain of a big c...
by Desert
Thu May 12, 2022 2:43 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3503
Views: 1051357

Re: The GOLD scream room

But in all seriousness, it looks like Gold is mostly tracking inversely to a strong dollar. The "market" has decided that inflation is headed down to ~3%. Not that Gold is strongly correlated with inflation anyway. In my investment view, gold has performed great twice in my lifetime: 1. When gold wa...
by Desert
Thu May 12, 2022 2:39 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3503
Views: 1051357

Re: The GOLD scream room

A couple positive things can still be said about gold:

1. Better than crypto!
2. Not the worst performer in the HBPP this year!
3. <add your own here>
by Desert
Thu May 12, 2022 11:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 63
Views: 3721

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Hi from a fellow PP forum old-timer, MT! Nice to hear from you, and glad you're doing well. I thought I'd see how folks here were reacting to the recent market conditions, and what a nice surprise it was to see a thread with your name on it! Keep on keepin' on, and stay sane in these chaotic times ...
by Desert
Mon May 09, 2022 1:39 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Next up on the planned crisis list
Replies: 36
Views: 2763

Re: Next up on the planned crisis list

Russia is going to invade Ukraine on Tuesday at 3pm!!! Meanwhile EU countries have not pulled their embassy workers and the President of Ukraine seems very relaxed, while Putin is laughing at the west. "MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has jokingly a...
by Desert
Sat May 07, 2022 2:49 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 2737

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Stocks and bonds get pounded in unison when rates rise so dramatically. I guess I just see that as the "risk" side of investing and I don't see it going on forever. From my point of view, nothing is broken. It just sucks to be an investor at the moment but it's better than the alternative! Very goo...
by Desert
Thu May 05, 2022 8:38 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 476
Views: 20409

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Fukuyama is always more optimistic than I think is warranted, but I have found his writing regarding Ukraine interesting. First, the United States and its NATO allies, responding to Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s pleas for military assistance, are now sending much larger quantities of equipment to Ukraine li...
by Desert
Thu May 05, 2022 8:30 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 476
Views: 20409

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Tortoise wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 3:57 pm
He has more posts about the war in Ukraine if you go past the first page and look at older posts, or even better, just search for the label "Ukraine":

http://ad-orientem.blogspot.com/search/label/Ukraine
Ah, I'd forgotten he had the blog. Thanks Tortoise!
by Desert
Wed May 04, 2022 11:57 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 476
Views: 20409

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

dualstow wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 9:14 am
I wonder what Ad Orientem thinks about all this.
Good question. It would be nice to have him back.
by Desert
Tue May 03, 2022 1:31 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Mainstream propaganda organs
Replies: 24
Views: 389

Re: Mainstream propaganda organs

murphy_p_t wrote:
Tue May 03, 2022 11:16 am
I'm big on Truth.

If there's something false in what I shared, I appreciate the information.
Now THAT is humorous. You are certainly not big on truth. Quite the opposite. You're the poster boy for the post-truth era.
by Desert
Tue May 03, 2022 1:30 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Mainstream propaganda organs
Replies: 24
Views: 389

Re: Mainstream propaganda organs

I guess you didn't quite understand what I said...crushing it in the infowar means the intended target audience believes your stuff over the other guy's stuff. In the western world, Ukraine has crushed it. Appreciate the citations...let's compare those with Russian stuff - Denazification - ICBM ind...
by Desert
Mon May 02, 2022 4:53 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Media Bias
Replies: 5
Views: 370

Re: Media Bias

I think it's a useful analysis and chart. It's changed some since the last time I looked at it - I don't think Tucker Carlson had his own entry a year ago. Our world would be a better place if we didn't consume the trash in the bottom half of the chart. The propaganda is addictive though, so I'm not...
by Desert
Mon May 02, 2022 12:18 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1444
Views: 470966

Re: Stock scream room

I’ve been expecting it. We have to have a prolonged bear market at some point. Same here. I think just about every even semi-aware investor has been expecting a serious bear market for some time now. We've been in a bull market since 2009, with a surprisingly brief pause for Covid. Another "lost de...
by Desert
Fri Apr 29, 2022 4:54 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Mainstream propaganda organs
Replies: 24
Views: 389

Re: Mainstream propaganda organs

dualstow wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:24 pm

What can you do? Filter and fill in as best you can. But not with Alex Jones or other fringe sources.
+1

Diversify news sources, cross-check with other reputable sources.
by Desert
Fri Apr 29, 2022 1:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: good references for estate planning?
Replies: 9
Views: 208

Re: good references for estate planning?

Thanks for the link! Looks promising. I'll start with the freewill (and the health care proxy) this weekend. I'll check out the book...but most likely just borrow a few books from the library to get and overview of the field and then convince my wife its time to get a lawyer involved. That sounds l...
by Desert
Fri Apr 29, 2022 11:14 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: good references for estate planning?
Replies: 9
Views: 208

Re: good references for estate planning?

That's a good question! This is the book I have, but only because it's used for the CFP curriculum I finished a while ago: https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Planning-National-Underwriter-Academic/dp/1949506045 It's long and expensive, and there are almost certainly better and more concise books. I w...
by Desert
Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:02 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 476
Views: 20409

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Horrifying. One thing stood out: The new inmates were put in uniforms and had their hair cut and were told they would be "vaccinated", which turned out to be a euphemism for a beating, Nikita said. So Putin HAS been conducting a vaccination campaign! Yeah, that part jumped out at me also. Ugly stuff.
by Desert
Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:25 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 476
Views: 20409

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Back to reality:

There are so many stories like this one, describing the brutality of Russia's invasion. Ol' Ronald Reagan was right about a few things when describing this culture.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61249158
by Desert
Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:21 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 476
Views: 20409

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Can’t see this. Their financial coverage is way ahead most other sources. And as far as propaganda, I feel like you have to pick your poison or try to inject all the different poisons to neutralize the effects. The New York Times is so bad I can barely read 10 words before I throw it away. Your vie...
by Desert
Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:02 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 476
Views: 20409

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Zero Hedge has long appeared to be a Russian propaganda source. At best, they're a conspiratorial clickbait site. But for at least 4-5 years, they've consistently echoed RT and other Russian propaganda sites. And of course they're known for their financial doom porn, and more recently their coronavi...