Search found 3507 matches

by Desert
Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: More Than Half of Millenials Expect to Be Millionaires
Replies: 14
Views: 524

Re: More Than Half of Millenials Expect to Be Millionaires

Every generation thinks the younger generation is doomed. And they're usually wrong. Except for the boomers' parents. :)
by Desert
Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wellesley
Replies: 23
Views: 883

Re: Wellesley

So it looks like Wellesley is currently at 36.5% is stocks, 63.1% in bonds and .4% in cash. Desert, if you go your proposed 80/20 route, you'd be about 51% in bonds, 29% in stocks and 20% in gold. If I remember your percentages correctly (60/30/10, right?) you'd essentially be ditching 1/6th of you...
by Desert
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wellesley
Replies: 23
Views: 883

Re: Wellesley

Thanks Desert! Let's hope that the bull market continues long enough to build up your portfolio for an extra safety margin. And then the crash will come just as I'm getting ready to retire, of course ;D Your posts make me think about strategies too. Like, I have an idea that if my portfolio grows l...
by Desert
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wellesley
Replies: 23
Views: 883

Re: Wellesley

I totally agree with that painful drawdown/withdrawal math, Sophie. By the way, it's a VERY strange experience to be withdrawing from accounts, for the first time in my life. I'm a very long-time saver; I remember hoarding quarters when I was about 5 years old. Even my own grandparents thought I was...
by Desert
Sun Jun 10, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Psychology of Money
Replies: 22
Views: 714

Re: The Psychology of Money

Taxes are $10,200. 66% is for the school districts. Up until last week, I had two kids in them, now one. Have they been worth $6700 a year? Absolutely. Will I want to pay it when they are both done? No. If the system ever changes to where users of specific services pay a surcharge during the years ...
by Desert
Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wellesley
Replies: 23
Views: 883

Re: Wellesley

Wellesley really looks like it uses some kind of trend-following risk management. The ascent over the decades is so clean, the drawdowns shallower than a 60/40. I'll wager there is effectively 1/4 - 1/2 trend-following in the investment policy, even if that terminology isn't used. These practices h...
by Desert
Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wellesley
Replies: 23
Views: 883

Re: Wellesley

We've had discussions on this in the past and definitely it's time for another one! Starting with your example: Let's assume that you're just starting retirement, and your portfolio is exactly 25x annual expenses, i.e. expenses are 4% of the portfolio size. So your 2% assumes that you keep no more ...
by Desert
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wellesley
Replies: 23
Views: 883

Re: Wellesley

Cash allocations that are used for regular expenses are an interesting topic we could probably discuss for several pages. Here is one example that I think will illustrate how I think about cash: Scenario: $1 million portfolio, retired, living on 4% withdrawals ($40,000 per year). 2 withdrawals are m...
by Desert
Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:26 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wellesley
Replies: 23
Views: 883

Re: Wellesley

Does tax efficiency matter to the investors in question? If so, is Wellesley tax efficient, or not as efficient as a pair of index funds? Good point, Wellesley is not tax efficient. For me that's not important, but for many investors, the separable allocations in something like the GB could likely ...
by Desert
Sat Jun 09, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wellesley
Replies: 23
Views: 883

Re: Wellesley

I use short term treasuries instead of Tbills for the GB. I imagine that makes up part of the difference, although you should note that the Simba spreadsheet will never perfectly match my numbers as we use different data sources these days. No Wellesley on Portfolio Charts at the moment, but I have...
by Desert
Fri Jun 08, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wellesley
Replies: 23
Views: 883

Re: Wellesley

Wow, thanks Tyler! I really appreciate all the data. Do you have Wellesley data available on your site now? For some reason, I'm not seeing the 0.5% difference in CAGR when I use the latest Bogle backtesting spreadsheet. From 1970 through 2017, I see the following real CAGR and Sustainable Withdrawa...
by Desert
Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wellesley
Replies: 23
Views: 883

Wellesley

I hope this is worth a new topic ... I think it will be. With more time on my hands, and all investments finally under my own control (no company 401k's, etc.), I have taken another look at portfolio options. I'm very impressed with the GB; in particular, the 40% equities and 20% gold looks like a s...