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by Mark Leavy
Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:01 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: TikTok ban thoughts?
Replies: 26
Views: 369

Re: TikTok ban thoughts?

The "Ban TikTok" Bill (full text) is misnomered. It is a generic Bill that grants nearly "Patriot Act" powers to go after anyone (Section 3) that the government deems a security risk and grants them authority to access any of the suspect's electronic devices and networks - from computers to game con...
by Mark Leavy
Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'M OUT!
Replies: 37
Views: 1213

Re: I'M OUT!

Nothing wrong with taking a step back when you feel that things are out of whack. Best move in that situation is to move your net worth to risk free assets that will return the risk free rate - and then reconnoiter. If you have the suspicion that the system is broken, but you don't yet know how or w...
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:54 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

... I dont know anyone who needs 250,000 liquidity always instantly available. Businesses need that liquidity to make payroll, pay the janitor, pay the rent, suck up the 3 months accounts receivables. $250K is shite. Business should have to pay for high limits like that ... Interesting. I don't dis...
by Mark Leavy
Tue Mar 14, 2023 1:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

... It's interesting, and other than the interest expense to the borrowing bank, I'm not seeing a negative effect on anyone, even though something about it feels like sleight of hand to the layperson. ... The negative aspect is that the loans are secured with crap collateral. 30 year treasuries and...
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 9:23 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

That worked out great for several years until one day she called me to tell me that the bank examiners had come by and discovered blank transfer forms signed by me. Nice work. But it's a problem. The average business that wants to function and stay insured and stay legal has to hire deviants. Someo...
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Or... back to my first question, am I missing something? Of the companies that you advise, how many of them have over $1 million per month of cash flow? And of those companies, how many of them keep their working cash in more than ten bank accounts, or have a system to overflow into short term Trea...
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 8:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

boglerdude wrote:
Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:51 pm
So I wont be able to fund my Juicero 2.0 :/
I can hook you up bro. Send photo of wife and boat.
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:51 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Feds announce that all SVB depositors will be made whole. Even those above $250K. It seems like someone explained the situation to them. Still, just a stop gap. This solution is a bit capricious and not a good foundation for future planning. Best to assume that any future failures won't be covered ...
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Sun Mar 12, 2023 6:14 pm
That was a good Noticing.
l33t supa h4x0r knows l33t supa h4x0r
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:50 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

In 1991 when Bank of New England failed, the FDIC stepped in and insured all depositors including those over the (then) $100,000 limit. They did so for the exact reasons your quote describes, namely to prevent panic among depositors that would spread throughout the financial system. Since then, the...
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 5:33 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Feds just closed Signature Bank out of NYC.

Major Kudos to the treasury department intern that used the leet URL.
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:45 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 1740
Views: 292049

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Smith1776 wrote:
Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:38 pm
Close enough so as to not be inconvenient to grab a beer and walk around Harvard campus.
So, less than about 20,000 Smoots?
by Mark Leavy
Sun Mar 12, 2023 3:06 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

One of the OG forum founders here sent me a link to this video . If you want to listen to a recount of how the SVB collapse played out for startup founders on Thursday and Friday - it is accurate. Pretty much a play by play of how it went down for my partners and I. We're not nearly as exposed as so...
by Mark Leavy
Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:14 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ChatGPT and what it means for our future
Replies: 113
Views: 3673

Re: ChatGPT and what it means for our future

But also, does ChatGPT have good game? Might need to explore that angle... I don't play in the same crowd as you, Kriegs. But a few times I've gotten a long rambling email from the girlfriend and I couldn't make heads nor tails of it. I asked the AI to break it into relevant bullet points, summariz...
by Mark Leavy
Sat Mar 11, 2023 7:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

That's a massive amount of money. I wonder what effect it might have on the treasury and short term debt markets to experience a sudden epic buy volume like that. I guess we'll find out. Fortunately, a lot of corporate CFO's aren't as on the ball as we would like to imagine. Certainly there will be...
by Mark Leavy
Sat Mar 11, 2023 1:35 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ChatGPT and what it means for our future
Replies: 113
Views: 3673

Re: ChatGPT and what it means for our future

Latest Southpark Episode. Featuring ChatGPT.
by Mark Leavy
Sat Mar 11, 2023 12:40 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Mark Leavy wrote:
Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:26 pm
..., but that is a logistical nightmare and probably frowned upon if SVB also happened to be one of your VC funders.

Ha! I was just guessing earlier, but ... good guess.

Mark Cuban.png
Mark Cuban.png (176.31 KiB) Viewed 604 times
by Mark Leavy
Fri Mar 10, 2023 11:48 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

That's got to be deflationary doesn't it? It puts the Feds in a tight spot. SVB (and a lot of other regional banks) were not able to write enough high quality loans to offset all of the depositor's funds. So they bought long dated treasuries. And didn't hedge them with interest rate swaps. And over...
by Mark Leavy
Fri Mar 10, 2023 10:14 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Xan wrote:
Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:24 pm
But, it doesn't mean 97.3% isn't FDIC insured. It could be that 97.3% of accounts have $250,001 deposited, in which case virtually 0% is uninsured.

As of 12/31/22 SVB had $173 Billion in deposits. $152 Billion were uninsured. Total of deposits over and above $250K per account.
by Mark Leavy
Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:26 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Silicon Valley Bank Failure
Replies: 127
Views: 2264

Re: Silicon Valley Bank Failure

Less than 3 percent of accounts have less than $25 0 ,000? Who the heck was depositing money there? Most of the accounts at SVB are were business accounts. Generally high tech startups out of Silicon Valley. For many businesses, $250K liquid cash on hand is not nearly enough to handle normal cash f...
by Mark Leavy
Sat Mar 04, 2023 4:00 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?
Replies: 16
Views: 2927

Re: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?

Seajay, I just want to say that I have thoroughly enjoyed your posts. Well thought out. Well written. Well researched.

A gold standard, if you will.

Thank you,
Mark
by Mark Leavy
Fri Mar 03, 2023 6:54 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 986
Views: 77533

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

Indeed a long history. Diseased cow carcasses via Trebuchet.
by Mark Leavy
Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:21 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 15
Views: 1201

Re: When will indexing blow up?

I could see a future where people who start companies don't incporporate, {etc} This is quite astute. I like it. One of the difficulties that would have to be overcome is that of obtaining capital. Investors would need some mechanism to guarantee their equity allocation. That doesn't sound unsolvab...
by Mark Leavy
Thu Mar 02, 2023 11:00 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock Picking in the PP
Replies: 33
Views: 3365

Re: Stock Picking in the PP

Nice move, Maddy. Congratulations.
by Mark Leavy
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:55 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: The New Conservative Books Are Angry. But Why Are They So Boring?
Replies: 5
Views: 606

Re: The New Conservative Books Are Angry. But Why Are They So Boring?

... , they are there to launder campaign money" Of course. All political books are contracted through a ghost writer and are the traditional means to launder kickbacks. Along with exhorbitant speaking fees. (Every politician, ever) And the purchase of unrecognized genius artwork. (Hunter Biden)