Search found 186 matches

by modeljc
Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:50 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 949

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Resurrecting this thread to share this WaPo article and to suggest that perhaps instead of holding QQQ maybe just replace some or all of the SCV in the GB with TSM, since our COVID 19 world seems to be doing a fine job of turning the the total market into a landscape entirely dominated by megacap t...
by modeljc
Sun Jul 12, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 949

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Resurrecting this thread to share this WaPo article and to suggest that perhaps instead of holding QQQ maybe just replace some or all of the SCV in the GB with TSM, since our COVID 19 world seems to be doing a fine job of turning the the total market into a landscape entirely dominated by megacap t...
by modeljc
Sat May 30, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Kirkland Lake Gold KL
Replies: 0
Views: 155

Kirkland Lake Gold KL

Just ran across this little gem. John Paulson just took position. No debt and cash on hand 500 million with safe properties in Canada. Pays a 1.3% divdend with a lot of leverage with the price of gold. Adjusting for recent merger looks like it is selling about 10 earnings. Stock has gone up about 6 ...
by modeljc
Sun May 24, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 949

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

How about this as a Tyler Teck growth golden Portfolio: 33% VUG 17% SHY 25% TLT 25% GLD One year is 24.9% and two years is 14.9% and three years is 11.8%. Ten years is 9.6% and 15 years is 8.4%. All with a maximun drawdown of -19%. No promise going forward but looks better than Golden butterfly. If ...
by modeljc
Sun May 24, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 949

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

It's been so long since people were suggesting to actively over-weight tech stocks. The problem with tech is: everybody is expecting tech stocks to do very well. So in order to get a better return than the general market, tech has to do even better than expected. If you really want large tech/growt...
by modeljc
Sat May 23, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 949

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Thanks! What is you weight for Nasdaq 100. Market is also thinking you are right on tech I'm at 15% TQQQ counterbalanced with 15% TMF. (3x leveraged Nasdaq 100 and 3x leveraged long treasuries) The rest split between gold and cash while we see where this roller coaster goes. Who knows? Basically a ...
by modeljc
Sat May 23, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 949

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

What would the forum think about: 20% QQQ 20% SPY 20% TLT 20% SHY 20% Gold Returns look interesting. About +1.6% over 15 years and could not test for rebalancing. Might be winner if QQQ had a big correction. Wish there was a way to test over 50 years. That's pretty solid. With that much equity, I w...
by modeljc
Sat May 23, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 949

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

Wish there was a way to test over 50 years. QQQ has about 60% overlap by market weight with VUG (large cap growth). So while it's not perfect, you might try using LCG as a substitute for QQQ in the Portfolio Charts tools. Thanks! VUG is interesting. Never looked at that being close to QQQ. Picks up...
by modeljc
Sat May 23, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 949

Re: Golden Technology Portfolio

It's basically a golden butterfly just with QQQ instead of SCV. My initial thought is that the correlation between QQQ and SPY is so high that I would probably choose one or the other at a full 40% as you're not really gaining as much diversity as you think by going halfsies. QQQ is a bit more vola...
by modeljc
Sat May 23, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Golden Technology Portfolio
Replies: 18
Views: 949

Golden Technology Portfolio

What would the forum think about:

20% QQQ

20% SPY

20% TLT

20% SHY

20% Gold

Returns look interesting. About +1.6% over 15 years and could not test for rebalancing. Might be winner if QQQ had a big correction. Wish there was a way to test over 50 years.
by modeljc
Tue May 05, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 2155
Views: 68033

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

When you consider "the price of a life" there isn't going to be one number that fits all. It matters how many years of lost life you're talking about. For most of the COVID victims it's a few years, at most. The average COVID victim is 79 years old. Life expectancy at that age is on the order of 8 ...
by modeljc
Tue May 05, 2020 5:29 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why should I buy Treasuries now?
Replies: 46
Views: 12090

Re: Why should I buy Treasuries now?

The only economic condition that scares me is long term deflation, in part because it suggests a deeply dysfunctional underlying economy with problems that can take decades to fully address. Contrary to common perception, inflation in a reserve currency is not that big a deal--it can be easily tame...