Search found 220 matches

by modeljc
Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:32 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 141
Views: 79764

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Hey, modeljc. Very much appreciate your thoughts. Whenever I see smart people think differently than I do, I wonder what I am missing. You seem to be recommending a complete exit from bonds and relying on cash and gold to counterweight equity / tech volatility. I’m intrigued. You’re still in the ga...
by modeljc
Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:52 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 141
Views: 79764

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I'm at about 25% each of TMF and TQQQ. 45% physical gold and 5% cash. (Plus a separate cash cache for 3 years living expenses). Roughly, that looks like 1.5x leverage, but it feels more explosive than that. Probably because it is not as easy to "refill" TQQQ from physical gold when it craters. I ha...
by modeljc
Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 43
Views: 2230

Re: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

Rising rates could be kryptonite at this particular point in time, yes. I hope the gold will mitigate the effects. Referring to another part of the thread, according to my notes, my Aha! moment was in 2004. That happens to match up with me realizing George Bush The Younger was a war criminal, and s...
by modeljc
Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 141
Views: 79764

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I wouldn’t try to talk anyone into this portfolio. My personal expectation is to have the TQQQ position completely wiped out, probably a couple of times. It’s in the data. However, if the rest of the port does its job, not to worry. The most important thing is can one refill the tank? Let’s do some...
by modeljc
Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 141
Views: 79764

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I wouldn’t try to talk anyone into this portfolio. My personal expectation is to have the TQQQ position completely wiped out, probably a couple of times. It’s in the data. However, if the rest of the port does its job, not to worry. The most important thing is can one refill the tank? Let’s do some...
by modeljc
Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:45 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 141
Views: 79764

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I wouldn’t try to talk anyone into this portfolio. My personal expectation is to have the TQQQ position completely wiped out, probably a couple of times. It’s in the data. However, if the rest of the port does its job, not to worry. The most important thing is can one refill the tank? Let’s do some...
by modeljc
Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 141
Views: 79764

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

On performance...those numbers are good. Basically holding TQQQ since inception would have made anyone wealthy. However, one should model 2000-2002 with a simulated TQQQ...my mix tries to be a mix for the long haul. I not sure TQQQ would have made it past 2000-2002. For me I not sure you can take t...
by modeljc
Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 141
Views: 79764

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

The "official" mix is changing. VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% Decided to add some pure negative correlation to the mix and I could see no redeeming quality to holding TMF anymore when VIXY is guaranteed to be negatively correlated. Overall up this year ranging from 36-42% with actual...
by modeljc
Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 141
Views: 79764

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

The "official" mix is changing. VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% Decided to add some pure negative correlation to the mix and I could see no redeeming quality to holding TMF anymore when VIXY is guaranteed to be negatively correlated. Overall up this year ranging from 36-42% with actual...
by modeljc
Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 142
Views: 6595

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

People like schiff or Jim rogers have been talking about hyperinflation for almost a decade and a half now though with nothing like that even on the horizon. Will it arrive someday? Maybe. Japan has been trying to get inflation going for nearly 30 years now. There are a lot of disinflationary force...
by modeljc
Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 142
Views: 6595

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

People like schiff or Jim rogers have been talking about hyperinflation for almost a decade and a half now though with nothing like that even on the horizon. Will it arrive someday? Maybe. Japan has been trying to get inflation going for nearly 30 years now. There are a lot of disinflationary force...
by modeljc
Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 141
Views: 79764

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

The "official" mix is changing. VGSH 35%, UST 30%, TQQQ 25%, DGP 5%, VIXY 5% Decided to add some pure negative correlation to the mix and I could see no redeeming quality to holding TMF anymore when VIXY is guaranteed to be negatively correlated. Overall up this year ranging from 36-42% with actual...