Search found 199 matches

by modeljc
Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:25 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Hoisington on why low rates can still go lower
Replies: 11
Views: 505

Re: Hoisington on why low rates can still go lower

Okay modeljc. Here are the numbers I came up with. I'm open to any corrections. Assuming current interest rates of 1.4% and assuming 25 years to maturity... I calculate that: An interest rate drop to 0% increases the bond price by 35% An interest rate increase to 3% decreases the bond price by 28%....
by modeljc
Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:02 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley
Replies: 22
Views: 397

Re: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley

Thanks very much for your thoughts! I don't blame folks who dislike active management but Wellington Group certainly has a deep bench and it's difficult to argue with the performance over many decades of either of the "W" funds (Wellington or Wellesley). I could totally see recommending some combin...
by modeljc
Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Ray Dalio and P/E's don't matter
Replies: 1
Views: 267

Ray Dalio and P/E's don't matter

Here is a link on bloomberg that says it's equities or gold.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2 ... view-video
by modeljc
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley
Replies: 22
Views: 397

Re: An odd choice for a VP: Wellesley

OK here's a weird idea for a VP: Vanguard's venerable Wellesley Income Fund, which celebrated its 50th year of stellar returns this past July. What prompted the thought was talking with a very knowledgeable investor friend who's long had 25% of his nest egg in W with the rest broadly-diversified in...
by modeljc
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:19 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Hoisington on why low rates can still go lower
Replies: 11
Views: 505

Re: Hoisington on why low rates can still go lower

I need a little help. Play like TLT yields zero. Then play like overnight TLT needs to yeild 3%. Need a sharpie to tell me the upside and the downside. drank just one light beer! I get +34% upside and 45% downside. It's a call to get short duration? Would you mind sharing the brand of that beer? It...
by modeljc
Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Hoisington on why low rates can still go lower
Replies: 11
Views: 505

Re: Hoisington on why low rates can still go lower

When Gary Shilling says the bond bull market is over, then I'll believe it's over. I need a little help. Play like TLT yields zero. Then play like overnight TLT needs to yeild 3%. Need a sharpie to tell me the upside and the downside. drank just one light beer! I get +34% upside and 45% downside. I...
by modeljc
Wed Sep 09, 2020 4:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2201

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

If LTTs are such a bad deal, why do they get snapped up? Kevin, your last link is interesting, and it basically says that bonds may not outperform cash, and historically they often don't. Well, I have cash on the other half of my barbell. It also says that we should expect an annualized return over...
by modeljc
Wed Sep 09, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2201

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

If LTTs are such a bad deal, why do they get snapped up? Kevin, your last link is interesting, and it basically says that bonds may not outperform cash, and historically they often don't. Well, I have cash on the other half of my barbell. It also says that we should expect an annualized return over...
by modeljc
Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2201

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

If LTTs are such a bad deal, why do they get snapped up? Kevin, your last link is interesting, and it basically says that bonds may not outperform cash, and historically they often don't. Well, I have cash on the other half of my barbell. It also says that we should expect an annualized return over...
by modeljc
Sat Sep 05, 2020 6:35 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 590
Views: 201073

Re: The Bond Dream Room

That could be, Smith. It could be (either instead or also?) that LTTs are bounded on both sides for a long time: they can't go up because the government wouldn't want high interest payments, and they can't go down because zero is a boundary of some kind. If that's the case, and it's MediumTex's gam...
by modeljc
Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 590
Views: 201073

Re: The Bond Dream Room

That could be, Smith. It could be (either instead or also?) that LTTs are bounded on both sides for a long time: they can't go up because the government wouldn't want high interest payments, and they can't go down because zero is a boundary of some kind. If that's the case, and it's MediumTex's gam...
by modeljc
Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 590
Views: 201073

Re: The Bond Dream Room

That could be, Smith. It could be (either instead or also?) that LTTs are bounded on both sides for a long time: they can't go up because the government wouldn't want high interest payments, and they can't go down because zero is a boundary of some kind. If that's the case, and it's MediumTex's gam...