Search found 172 matches

by modeljc
Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: mathjak's daytrading adventures
Replies: 33
Views: 978

Re: mathjak's daytrading adventures

except i only have the 275k to put in since the real estate sale in sept as i mentioned above ... the trading varied between 210-225k . plus it generated a lot in interest too as these trades were short and then it was swept to the money market ... so it was a great return overall . remember too go...
by modeljc
Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:38 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 77
Views: 34603

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

It's hard to say and there are quite a few data issues so let's try some different backtests and I will assume 1.5x leverage of the primary assets and exclude cash. N/N/N = Large Cap/LC, LT (Long-term treasuries), G (gold) followed by CAGR and Max DD Portfoliovisualizer from 1978 - July 2019 https:...
by modeljc
Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 77
Views: 34603

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

52% STT, 16% TQQQ/TMF/UGLD My ideal would be 25/12.5/12.5. However, with the market being both long in the tooth and very expensive no need to be greedy. Thanks. Do have have your rebalance bands set in your mind? When and how do you bank some of this gain. When you backtested this what does the do...
by modeljc
Thu Aug 29, 2019 5:28 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 77
Views: 34603

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Kbg wrote:
Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:48 am
*pinching self* just shy of +35% this year.
This a long post. Can you bring us up to date on your current allocations and %'s after XIV when off the board. What produced the +35%. Feels real good now. The old cat bird seat!!
by modeljc
Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 11085

Re: REITs

Thanks for all the good work over at Portfolio charts. I would be interested to know what you think might end up being a final allocation for you. "Final" is a strong word. I always have an open mind to new information. But I'm leaning towards this: 20% Total Stock Market 20% Small Cap Value 20% Lo...
by modeljc
Tue Aug 20, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 11085

Re: REITs

Final is not so strong for me as I am 82 and still thinking about the perfect portfolio. How does the backtest work out? In this case modeling it for yourself is a lot simpler than waiting on me to post a bunch of charts. ;) https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/my-portfolio/ Average returns +1.9%....
by modeljc
Tue Aug 20, 2019 4:17 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 11085

Re: REITs

Thanks for all the good work over at Portfolio charts. I would be interested to know what you think might end up being a final allocation for you. "Final" is a strong word. I always have an open mind to new information. But I'm leaning towards this: 20% Total Stock Market 20% Small Cap Value 20% Lo...
by modeljc
Tue Aug 20, 2019 3:26 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 11085

Re: REITs

Funny you should mention that out of the blue. ??? I've been considering adding an REIT fund for a while now and am pretty close to pulling the trigger. It's not a timing thing for me, but I sorta like them in moderation for the income in good times and inflation protection when needed. Thanks for ...
by modeljc
Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:44 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 472
Views: 126975

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Fun perspective. Record set on 30 year us bonds: https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/business/record-set-on-30-year-us-bonds.html Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up. All bow before the genius of ...
by modeljc
Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 3 years of PP returns
Replies: 25
Views: 3296

Re: 3 years of PP returns

The low 2018 return is a bit artificial. If the year had ended a few weeks later or earlier, it would be a whole different story. The YTD 2019 returns reflect the deep transient market dive at year's end: the PP stands at 7.8% and GB at 9% - and this is just for the first half of the year! Even tho...
by modeljc
Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 3 years of PP returns
Replies: 25
Views: 3296

Re: 3 years of PP returns

For May 2016-May 2019 Bureau of Labor Statistics report the U.S. Consumer price index as up 6.6%. So inflation has averaged +2.2% over three years. A little more than I thought! I am happy with the PP I think since 2014 the returns are lower than history I think some deflation is in the system but c...
by modeljc
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 3 years of PP returns
Replies: 25
Views: 3296

Re: 3 years of PP returns

Real is real, that’s why we use it and not nominal. "Shilling notes that U.S. inflation numbers don’t register the full impact of falling prices because the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not kept up with the explosion of new technology products." The goverment can't measure inflation but deflation...