My question is, for the purposes of financial planning, how do you estimate your future investment returns? The whole thing just seems like a crapshoot, which I guess it is at some level. Personally, I just take the Baseline Return as detailed here => https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/long-term...

Everyone should be familiar with the phrase in the subject line. My question is, for the purposes of financial planning, how do you estimate your future investment returns? Say you’ve identified an asset allocation that has returned an average of 10% nominal over the last 50 years ( std dev 8.8 ). Y...

dualstow wrote: ↑

Fri May 19, 2023 6:58 am

Doesn’t shine when it should

— totally agree, Barrett.

Does gold have an obligation to shine when people want/expect it to?

It shines when it does. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The article is fine as far as it goes but this last paragraph was kind of just thrown in as an aside: "We didn’t cover the nuances involved with spousal benefits, dependent benefits, or survivor benefits. These auxiliary benefits could impact your filing decision in either direction, and coordinati...

Not sure I would give it such high praise, but the emphasis on SS as insurance would be helpful to a lot of people.

I'm curious to know if anyone is (or has considered) using home equity as a more active part of their retirement income strategy, beyond just the typical asset of last resort or legacy asset. A case can be made that a tool like a reverse mortgage (and more specifically a reverse mortgage line of cre...

On that subject, throughout history, people's children have been the original old-age/retirement system, and in many ways they still are. This seems to be a big part of what people on this board say they're doing with their own parents. If that's not your plan because you don't have kids, or your k...

I could write volumes on the issue of tort litigation, but cutting to the chase, the idea of huge jury verdicts in nursing home cases is a myth. The one plaintiff's case in which I was involved led me to do a comprehensive review of past jury verdicts in care facilities, and the awards in even the ...

Take it as inside information from a former hospital administrator, hospital CFO and nursing home administrator, licensed in two states. If I told you the average person is spending closer to $20-$30K/year out of pocket for elder care, even with dementia, would that seem reasonable to you? (Out of ...

All any of us can do is to do our best and we’re going to end up with whatever we end up with. People have been retiring that way forever. That they have. But several things are different now. First, people are living longer while getting substantially less healthy. That means far more time spent n...

All any of us can do is to do our best and we’re going to end up with whatever we end up with. People have been retiring that way forever. To be pedantic…is that true? My speculation is that voluntary retirement is a modern construct. I meant “for as long as people have been retiring”, not literall...

Seems like the answer to “how much to save for retirement” is always the same as how much the rich should pay in taxes: “more”. If you think you have it all figured out, someone will make you aware of some new reason that no, actually you’re doomed. All any of us can do is to do our best and we’re g...

TikTok is more dangerous as a tool of persuasion than of espionage. The US Government doesn't like tools of persuasion that they can't control (and apparently they haven't figured out how to profit from it) hence they want to ban it. I don't use TikTok. Part of me says it shouldn't be banned outrigh...

This is just “SEO Content” designed to perform well with search engines. There’s no real analysis. The goal is to attract people searching for various investment strategies and convert them to a paid membership.

If the stock market was dropping 50% and the "outlook" for stocks was not bright, would you sell all of your remaining stock holdings, potentially at a loss, and pile into whatever was doing well at the moment? I tried that in 2008, and it didn't work out well; in fact, that's what led me to the PP...

What I was trying to say is that if enough people believe the lies for enough time, the damage is done and at some point it's too late to undo it. The narrative engineers know this. They don't care, they don't admit fault, they're not ashamed, they just move on to the next false narrative. Some peop...

It might take a while for this knowledge to percolate through (it will definitely be fought by corporate media/Democratic Party), but I think eventually most people will come to grips with it. In what timeframe? Reminds me of the saying “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solv...

D vs R is the wrong framing for most issues these days.

Here's what you do: Read Tyler's excellent article on bond convexity! High Profits at Low Rates: The Benefits of Bond Convexity Read it multiple times if necessary, that's what I do. It depends on the role long-term bonds play in your portfolio, but it may make you wonder if you should buy more now ...

Some people say that the Fed's inflation target is actually a 2% average over time , the duration of which remains a mystery. So the Fed will hold interest rates higher for longer than many people expect. This is the speech that's often cited, by John C Williams of the New York Fed on 11/30/2018. M...

Some people say that the Fed's inflation target is actually a 2% average over time, the duration of which remains a mystery. So the Fed will hold interest rates higher for longer than many people expect.

Holy smoke, it's all broken wide open. There is absolutely no surviving this by the dems. They're done. Right now. https://rumble.com/v27yyq2-joe-biden-is-a-foreign-agent-the-case-is-closed-ep.-1941-the-dan-bongino-sh.html?mref=16emn&mc=6kk5f Well... don't get yourself too invested in potential out...

LOL...

DOJ rejects Jordan info requests on Biden classified docs by citing special counsel appointment

I dont necessarily object to gain of function research. But its interesting how this story was scrubbed for several days, and how most of family will never hear about it. People are living in different realities if they dont seek out contrarian news sources. When everyone had to read NYtimes, WSJ e...

LOL... Vice President Mike Pence discovered classified documents in Indiana home (Fox News... so probably false, right?) I'm waiting for Oprah to stand up and yell "YOU get classifed docs... and YOU get classified docs... and EVERYONE gets classified docs!!" It's apparent that classified docs are n...