Search found 1102 matches

by flyingpylon
Wed Feb 07, 2024 1:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing and Timing
Replies: 7
Views: 539

Re: Rebalancing and Timing

I split the trigger into two zones: “can rebalance” and “must rebalance”. Can rebalance is within around 1% of the must rebalance threshold. I allow myself to rebalance if I feel like it. I do partial rebalances and I got tired of missing out on opportunities because I waited for that last 1% or so....
by flyingpylon
Mon Feb 05, 2024 12:56 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Life Insurance in Retirement
Replies: 1
Views: 174

Life Insurance in Retirement

I'm curious to know what people's thoughts are about life insurance in retirement (or very close to it). For this purpose I'm only referring to term insurance, not any other type that also serves as an investment. Say you and your spouse have been working and investing for many years, the mortgage i...
by flyingpylon
Wed Jan 10, 2024 8:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3
Replies: 37
Views: 59621

Re: 25 x 4 or 33 x 3

I always laugh when someone states they are "100% stocks", yet the have 1-2 years of living expenses in cash... so, they aren't actually 100% stocks, then. This puts the PP at a disadvantage when it is backtested against other asset allocation strategies that exclude cash savings. I like ...
by flyingpylon
Mon Nov 27, 2023 8:25 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Login & Cache
Replies: 9
Views: 15076

Re: Login & Cache

I experienced the same thing using Firefox on iOS so I switched to Chrome and Safari. Seems like there was another combination of OS and browser where it happened but I can’t remember now.
by flyingpylon
Fri Oct 27, 2023 1:26 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1231
Views: 609460

Re: YouTube Junkie

Thought this animation created in 2012 was interesting in light of current events...

This Land is Mine by Nina Paley
https://youtu.be/8tIdCsMufIY?si=jHTGr5wrap3w0evC

https://blog.ninapaley.com/2012/10/01/t ... d-is-mine/
by flyingpylon
Wed Sep 27, 2023 4:36 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 76934

Re: TLT cracks $90

Thoughts? At 16.7% of my PP... Getting close to the 15% rebalance band. I hope it doesn't happen this year but will in 2024. Will have to report my 2023 to FAFSA, so I do not want to sell anything from my brokerage accounts :-[ Regarding FAFSA, make sure your ordinary income qualifies you for finan...
by flyingpylon
Sat Sep 09, 2023 8:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 101397

Re: PP Mistakes

Thanks for this. A comprehensive list. Thought it took scanning the list a few times to finally find the Simplified Permanent Portfolio. The list is what order? Definitely NOT alphabetical? ????????? 30-year avg return, descending order. Click on the column headers to change the sort order.
by flyingpylon
Fri Sep 08, 2023 9:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 101397

Re: PP Mistakes

Hindsight is 20/20. Foresight, not so much.
by flyingpylon
Thu Aug 17, 2023 9:18 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Left is Eating Itself Pt. II
Replies: 846
Views: 440592

Re: The Left is Eating Itself Pt. II

Smith1776 wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2023 7:46 am I'm really surprised that no one on the forum so far is discussing the Trump indictments. ???
Because there's no longer any discussion here. People state their cases at each other until one or both sides get pissed off and return to their respective corners.

What's the point?
by flyingpylon
Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:11 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Netflix junkie
Replies: 352
Views: 131349

Re: Netflix junkie

I just finished watching Mad Max for the first time ever. I honestly don’t get the hype. The movie was very meh to me. I also now especially don’t get why Bogleheads always refer to the “Mad Max scenario” when discussing gold as an investment. Does anyone really think that this corresponds with rea...
by flyingpylon
Fri Jun 23, 2023 9:56 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Do you listen to Scott Adams?
Replies: 25
Views: 19424

Re: Do you listen to Scott Adams?

vnatale wrote: Fri Jun 23, 2023 8:10 am Well, my other must are listening to the five Sunday news shows. Try to listen to them twice each week.
Yikes. Maybe you should try only listening to them once so you have time to consider other perspectives, and see where that takes you.
by flyingpylon
Thu Jun 22, 2023 6:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Do you listen to Scott Adams?
Replies: 25
Views: 19424

Re: Do you listen to Scott Adams?

I would say once in a great while. I do read his tweets, that’s all I have time for.
by flyingpylon
Wed May 24, 2023 9:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Replies: 9
Views: 3721

Re: Past performance is no guarantee of future results

My question is, for the purposes of financial planning, how do you estimate your future investment returns? The whole thing just seems like a crapshoot, which I guess it is at some level. Personally, I just take the Baseline Return as detailed here => https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/long-term...
by flyingpylon
Wed May 24, 2023 5:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Replies: 9
Views: 3721

Past performance is no guarantee of future results

Everyone should be familiar with the phrase in the subject line. My question is, for the purposes of financial planning, how do you estimate your future investment returns? Say you’ve identified an asset allocation that has returned an average of 10% nominal over the last 50 years ( std dev 8.8 ). Y...
by flyingpylon
Fri May 19, 2023 8:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Buy gold now?
Replies: 13
Views: 11779

Re: Buy gold now?

dualstow wrote: Fri May 19, 2023 6:58 am
Doesn’t shine when it should
— totally agree, Barrett.
Does gold have an obligation to shine when people want/expect it to?

It shines when it does. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
by flyingpylon
Wed May 17, 2023 9:31 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Maximize your Social Security benefits by changing your thinking
Replies: 10
Views: 3026

Re: Maximize your Social Security benefits by changing your thinking

The article is fine as far as it goes but this last paragraph was kind of just thrown in as an aside: "We didn’t cover the nuances involved with spousal benefits, dependent benefits, or survivor benefits. These auxiliary benefits could impact your filing decision in either direction, and coord...
by flyingpylon
Tue May 16, 2023 12:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Maximize your Social Security benefits by changing your thinking
Replies: 10
Views: 3026

Re: Maximize your Social Security benefits by changing your thinking

Not sure I would give it such high praise, but the emphasis on SS as insurance would be helpful to a lot of people.
by flyingpylon
Wed May 03, 2023 12:07 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Home Equity / Reverse Mortgages
Replies: 0
Views: 1875

Home Equity / Reverse Mortgages

I'm curious to know if anyone is (or has considered) using home equity as a more active part of their retirement income strategy, beyond just the typical asset of last resort or legacy asset. A case can be made that a tool like a reverse mortgage (and more specifically a reverse mortgage line of cre...
by flyingpylon
Fri Apr 14, 2023 12:43 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 83505

Re: How much to save for retirement

On that subject, throughout history, people's children have been the original old-age/retirement system, and in many ways they still are. This seems to be a big part of what people on this board say they're doing with their own parents. If that's not your plan because you don't have kids, or your k...
by flyingpylon
Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:27 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 83505

Re: How much to save for retirement

I could write volumes on the issue of tort litigation, but cutting to the chase, the idea of huge jury verdicts in nursing home cases is a myth. The one plaintiff's case in which I was involved led me to do a comprehensive review of past jury verdicts in care facilities, and the awards in even the ...
by flyingpylon
Sun Apr 09, 2023 11:51 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 83505

Re: How much to save for retirement

Take it as inside information from a former hospital administrator, hospital CFO and nursing home administrator, licensed in two states. If I told you the average person is spending closer to $20-$30K/year out of pocket for elder care, even with dementia, would that seem reasonable to you? (Out of ...
by flyingpylon
Fri Apr 07, 2023 7:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 83505

Re: How much to save for retirement

All any of us can do is to do our best and we’re going to end up with whatever we end up with. People have been retiring that way forever. That they have. But several things are different now. First, people are living longer while getting substantially less healthy. That means far more time spent n...
by flyingpylon
Fri Apr 07, 2023 6:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 83505

Re: How much to save for retirement

All any of us can do is to do our best and we’re going to end up with whatever we end up with. People have been retiring that way forever. To be pedantic…is that true? My speculation is that voluntary retirement is a modern construct. I meant “for as long as people have been retiring”, not literall...
by flyingpylon
Thu Apr 06, 2023 9:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 83505

Re: How much to save for retirement

Seems like the answer to “how much to save for retirement” is always the same as how much the rich should pay in taxes: “more”. If you think you have it all figured out, someone will make you aware of some new reason that no, actually you’re doomed. All any of us can do is to do our best and we’re g...