Lessons From Switzerland's One-Day, 18 Percent Currency Rise

[MediumTex]

I made some changes to the font recognition settings to help make the forum run better and apparently it no longer understands that type of quotation mark.

[Xan]

I think it does understand that quotation mark.  Here, I'll C&P the text from the original article:
Economic Lessons From Switzerland’s One-Day, 18 Percent Currency Rise

There's the fancy quotation mark.  I think the quotation marks (and other non-ASCII characters) didn't survive whatever conversion was done.  They worked before, and they worked now, but the ones from before are mangled.

[MediumTex]

I think it does understand that quotation mark.  Here, I'll C&P the text from the original article:
Economic Lessons From Switzerland’s One-Day, 18 Percent Currency Rise

There's the fancy quotation mark.  I think the quotation marks (and other non-ASCII characters) didn't survive whatever conversion was done.  They worked before, and they worked now, but the ones from before are mangled.

So it shouldn't be a problem with new posts, right?

[Xan]

Right, it isn't.  As demonstrated by the apostrophe in my earlier post.

[Lang]

The year is over, and here's what the Swiss PP did in 2015:

- The SPI (stock index) is up 2.68%.
- The longest Swiss government bond is up 2.4%.
- A UBS ETF invested in physical gold is down 11.39%.
- Cash is 0%.

A 4x25 portfolio would yield a 1.58% loss in 2015.

[barrett]

Good to see this thread revisited.

Interesting to see that the CHF ended 2015 barely changed from a year earlier. See here:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from= ... SD&view=1Y

[Lang]

The year is over, and here's what the Swiss PP did in 2015:

- The SPI (stock index) is up 2.68%.
- The longest Swiss government bond is up 2.4%.
- A UBS ETF invested in physical gold is down 11.39%.
- Cash is 0%.

A 4x25 portfolio would yield a 1.58% loss in 2015.

Here's a quick update on the performance of the Swiss PP so far in 2016:

- The SPI (stock index) is down 8.42% year to date.
- The longest Swiss government bond is up 23.4%.
- Gold (in Swiss Francs) is up 18.25%.
- Cash is 0%.

So the Swiss PP is up 8.3% year to date. This compensates rather well for the disappointing performance in 2015.

[Lang]

Swiss PP performance in first half of 2016:

- The SPI (stock index) is down 3.9%.
- The longest Swiss government bond (maturity in 2064) is up 30.6%.
- A UBS ETF invested in physical gold is up 23%.
- Cash is 0%.

A 4x25 portfolio would yield a 12.4% profit year to date. The annualized YTD profit is 26.3%.

Recall that the Swiss PP lost 1.58% in 2015.

[craigr]

Swiss PP performance in first half of 2016:

- The SPI (stock index) is down 3.9%.
- The longest Swiss government bond (maturity in 2064) is up 30.6%.
- A UBS ETF invested in physical gold is up 23%.
- Cash is 0%.

A 4x25 portfolio would yield a 12.4% profit year to date. The annualized YTD profit is 26.3%.

Recall that the Swiss PP lost 1.58% in 2015.

Thank you for the update. I hope you are able to watch what is going on with the EU in Switzerland with some comfort.

[ILoveMoney]

- The longest Swiss government bond (maturity in 2064) is up 30.6%.

Thanks indeed for the update, always interesting to see how the PP is doing in other parts of the world.

Could you tell me what the coupon rate is on the Swiss LTT? (I'm guessing its a bond from 2014?)

[Lang]

- The longest Swiss government bond (maturity in 2064) is up 30.6%.

Thanks indeed for the update, always interesting to see how the PP is doing in other parts of the world.

Could you tell me what the coupon rate is on the Swiss LTT? (I'm guessing its a bond from 2014?)

Yup. The bond's details are:
Coupon: 2% at annual frequency.
Maturity: 25.06.2064 (48 years)
Issuance date: 25.06.2014
Yield to Maturity: -0.03%
Duration: 36.5 years.

I noticed now that a new bond was issued around 2 months ago, which has even greater duration than the 2064 bond. So perhaps it is better suited for the PP? Anyway, here are its details, for comparison's sake:

Coupon: 0.5% at annual frequency.
Maturity: 30.05.2058 (42 years)
Issuance date: 30.05.2016
Yield to Maturity: -0.04%.
Duration: 38.4 years.

[Lang]

Swiss PP performance in 2016:

- The SPI (stock index) is down 1.4% (up 2.7% in 2015)
- The longest Swiss government bond (maturity in 2064) is up 10.9% (up 2.4% in 2015)
- A UBS ETF invested in physical gold is up 11.9% (down 11.4% in 2015)
- Cash is 0%. (also in 2015)

A 4x25 portfolio would yield a 6% profit in 2016 (after a 1.58% loss in 2015).

However, all of the above assets, except cash, were highly volatile in 2016, going up and/or down 25% at some points. Therefore a true PP portfolio would probably need to be rebalanced during this year. I am ignoring rebalancing here.

[Libertarian666]

Swiss PP performance in 2016:

- The SPI (stock index) is down 1.4% (up 2.7% in 2015)
- The longest Swiss government bond (maturity in 2064) is up 10.9% (up 2.4% in 2015)
- A UBS ETF invested in physical gold is up 11.9% (down 11.4% in 2015)
- Cash is 0%. (also in 2015)

A 4x25 portfolio would yield a 6% profit in 2016 (after a 1.58% loss in 2015).

However, all of the above assets, except cash, were highly volatile in 2016, going up and/or down 25% at some points. Therefore a true PP portfolio would probably need to be rebalanced during this year. I am ignoring rebalancing here.

What does the 2064 Swiss government bond yield?

[Lang]

At the moment, 0.47%, but it was negative not so long ago.